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Forecasting as a management tool

  • In the context of dynamic and unstable business environment companies tend to more flexible performance management system. Being a central element in a performance management framework, forecasting practice becomes a major concern for business organizations. The practitioners claim that there is a significant gap existing between the development and the application of forecasting activities. In this respect strong bridges are required to connect theory and practice. Through an expert interview method author investigates how forecasting activities contribute to business performance. The main purpose of this research paper is to investigate the problem statement by answering the questions concerning how planning activities have changed in the last few years and what is the current attitude and commitment to forecasting tool. Furthermore, this study explores how forecasting is integrated in the decision-making process and how it affects business decisions. Finally research investigates whether companies apply a rolling forecast as well as the reasons for and against using a rolling approach are also considered. The main findings of the research show that companies have altered their planning activities to improve forecast effectiveness, to reduce uncertainty and risks, to enable a more flexible resource allocation. Interviewed companies expressed growing interest and commitment to forecasting as an instrument of control. Moreover, results demonstrate that forecasting plays a crucial role for the business organization by facilitating business decisions and providing assumptions for business plans. Also different practices show, the more complex and larger organization is the more scrutinized and granular the forecast process should be. Regarding a rolling forecast, only two interviewed companies use this approach. All respondents found a rolling forecast beneficial for the business, however, in order to be successful companies are required to put more efforts and gain more experience with this method.

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Author:Iana Lobova
Advisor:Rütger Conzelmann
Document Type:Bachelor Thesis
Year of Completion:2016
Granting Institution:Hochschule Furtwangen
Release Date:2016/04/08
Degree Program:IBM - International Business Management
Functional area:Finance & Accounting
Licence (German):License LogoUrheberrechtlich geschützt