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The international debate on cannabis legalization gained considerable momentum after US states Colorado and Washington adopted laws on legal recreational cannabis for the first time. Ever since, seven US states and nations such as Uruguay and Canada followed the lead. Germany is no exception from this development and there are various other countries considering to legalize marihuana for recreational purposes as well.
It is of high interest for policy makers in politics, economics and public health and safety to understand to what extent such an amendment influences different areas of society. The academic literature about coherent implications for the German state is scarce. The present thesis is an analysis of the economic consequences of a potential cannabis legalization in Germany and a weighing up of its pros and cons in monetary terms.
Information about properties of cannabis markets such as supply, prices, demand and their dynamics - predominantly from scientific research in nations with adopted legalization or decriminalization laws – were examined and transferred to Germany to compute likely income and expenditure related to or influenced by cannabis. Factors included are demand reactions and thereby impacts on tax income from marihuana, public expenditure for law enforcement and health, the alcohol industry, opiate consumption, as well as road safety
and drug-related crime. A legalization would result in a significant increase of annual cannabis consumption and regular users in Germany. The analysis identified public expenditure and tax income as substantial components with regard to the economic feasibility study. Interrelations to alcohol consumption are also important in determining the appropriateness of such an amendment. Severe adverse outcomes on road safety or other drug consumption are not expected. Drug-related crime and power of organized crime are likely to decrease.
Nowadays, almost every country in the world classifies cannabis as illegal, nevertheless it is still the most consumed illicit substance in the world. Up until 2019, only two countries worldwide have legalized cannabis completely at national level. In more than 25 countries, cannabis has a partial legal and social accepted status.
While medicinal cannabis was legalized in Germany in 2017, recreational cannabis remains illegal in Germany as per today. The very conservative estimated market value for the German illegal cannabis market is approx. 2.3 billion Euros. Assuming that legalization of recreational cannabis will capitalize the entire or even a major part of the black market of cannabis, the German government would benefit from significant additional tax revenue.
From a political point of view, today there is still a vehement controversy about the legalization of cannabis in Germany. However, experts predict legalization of recreational cannabis in several European countries within the next three to ten years.
Under the assumption that cannabis will be legalized in Germany, sustainable business models were defined within the context of this assignment. As part of this exploratory study, two experts of the cannabis industry were interviewed. On the base of a qualitative content analysis as well as extensive research sustainable business models were defined and evaluated. As a result of the study, a comprehensive recommendation of action was developed.