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Course of studies
Germany has a long history in the car sector. However, today’s car industry is drastically changing, triggered by the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies and changing consumer preferences. The purpose of this research project is to forecast, by using the scenario planning software INKA 4, the future of cars in Germany in 2035. The research project focused mainly on cars based on internal combustion engines (ICE), fuel cell vehicles (FCV), battery electric vehicles (BEV) and Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and their charging infrastructure in Germany. Also, the future of autonomous driving vehicles, public transportation and carsharing in Germany were taken into consideration. Considering these factors following four areas of influence were chosen: Technology, Economics, Politics and Social. Within these areas of influence thirteen input factors (descriptors) were defined by research on current literature. The results show three distinct scenarios that reflect a possible shift towards electric mobility, autonomous driving, and an increase in the use of car sharing.
Key findings
The future of cars in Germany is affected by four areas of influence: Technology, Economics, Politics and Social. Among those four areas, a total of thirteen descriptors were selected as an input for the scenario building.
With the software INKA 4 five different scenarios were generated. Three distinctive scenarios were chosen and described to outline the future of cars in Germany in 2035.
It is highly probable that the future cars will be electrified and autonomous and that shared mobility will increase. The extent of the aforementioned change until 2035 depends highly on the German government and customer preferences.
The German banking landscape is currently undergoing a paradigm shift of an unprecedented magnitude. As the financial world is changing, the future of German banks is highly uncertain. A multitude of present-day driving factors will shape the banking world of tomorrow. Therefore, this thesis aims to investigate and analyze the future of the German banking sector until 2030. The concept of scenario planning serves as underlying method for this research. Based on current factors influencing the German banking sector, the present thesis systematically develops coherent future scenarios. The generation of these scenarios is performed with the help of the scenario software INKA 4. This enables to assess a comprehensive picture of the future environment and the interactions between external influencing factors. Based on the most consistent future scenario, implications for the strategies of German banks are derived. As a result, German incumbents can question their strategic orientation and position themselves optimally for the future.