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The paper tests the German stock market for excess volatility and stock price overvaluation with regard to the simple efficient markets model and the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. Long-term historical stock market data of 49 years are used to calculate the detrended real price and ex-post value and data of 39 years to compute the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, both from the sample of two German automotive stocks. The empirical evidence provided by the analysis points to excess market volatility and confirms the theory of overvalued stocks, which is linked to the bubble theory. This indicates that price fluctuations cannot be justified only by changes in fundamental values as claimed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The German stock market therefore shows inefficiency.
The present study examines stock split announcements with regard to the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. Daily security price data and a sample of 262 stock split announcements observed on the New York Stock Exchange during the ten-year period from January 2006 to December 2015 are applied on parametric as well as nonparametric tests. The test results provide empirical evidence in favor of the semi-strong form of market efficiency. This implies that the marketplace immediately and efficiently reacts to stock split announcements by adjusting security prices. Therefore, it is not possible to generate significant abnormal returns by trading on the information content implicit in stock split announcements.