Economics
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Course of studies
The start of the financial crisis in 2007 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers the end of 2008 led to a severe global economic crisis. To counter the negative shocks of the crisis, central banks pushed their conventional monetary policy tools to their limits. As policy rates reached their zero lower bound and no further stimulation of the economy was possible through the standard operating framework, additional measures were needed to improve the overall situation of dislocated financial markets and liquidity shortages. Therefore, central banks in advanced economies implemented unconventional monetary policy measures called quantitative easing (QE). Quantitative easing mainly works through an expansion of a central bank’s balance sheets and is aimed to reach a desired inflation target of 2%. This thesis examines detailed introduction, procedures, risks, and exit strategy of QE. The focus of this thesis is on design and operation of QE conducted by the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank and on their achieved results regarding interest rates and broader economic effects. In addition, evidence for the effectiveness is analyzed with help of an event study. Key findings of this thesis demonstrate that by means of QE, positive development on economic indicators can be recorded but it also has limited impacts. If central banks conduct their stimulus for too long, it creates risks, and, for this reason, an appropriate exit strategy is required to avoid ineffectiveness of the monetary policy. To date, no country has completed their exit and, therefore, the future will illustrate the final consequences of QE.
Analyse des Fintech-Sektors - Reaktionen der Banken und Auswirkungen auf die Finanzstabilität
(2017)
This Bachelor Thesis provides an overview of the growing Fintech-sector and analyses banks’ reactions and impacts on the financial stability. The examined aspects include findings about differences between banks and Fintech-companies, main success factors, banks’ reaction to new market participants and consequences for the financial stability.
Fintech describes the combination of innovative technology and financial services. Fintech-companies provide alternative financial services for private and corporate clients, which accelerate and simplify the access to financial resources, the investment of assets or the execution of transactions.
Both Fintech-companies and banks show a high degree of willingness to cooperate, which enables to benefit from synergy effects. Fintech-companies are the innovative driver, whereas banks provide the necessary expertise and a big customer base. In 2016 banks’ venture capital subsidiaries invested $ 13.6 billion in cooperation projects with Fintech-companies.
From today’s perspective, there are no concrete risks, which could imply foreseeable dangers for the financial stability. However, there are risks which could destabilize the financial system in the long-term, if the growth of the Fintech-sector continues steadily. At the same time, innovation in financial technology could have stabilizing implications for the financial system, because of higher efficiency, decentralisation, diversification and transparency.
Die vorliegende Bachelorarbeit gibt einen Überblick über die Anforderungen und Herausforderungen im Beteiligungsmanagement und deren Auswirkungen auf die Gestaltung eines wertorientieren Beteiligungscontrolling. In diesem Zusammenhang wird die Beteiligungsmanagementsoftware von Daimler auf fachliche und technische Aspekte anhand von gesetzlicher Vorgaben bewertet. Die Basis der Arbeit sind Experteninterviews mit Daimler Mitarbeitern sowie die im Anhang angegebene Literatur. Dadurch erhofft sich die Autorin einen interdisziplinären Erkenntnisgewinn.
In response to the global financial crisis, some of the major central banks in the world have implemented so-called unconventional monetary policy tools, in particular Quantitative Easing. These tools were aimed to improve conditions in financial markets, to provide liquidity and later on, in response to the European sovereign debt crisis, also to stimulate the economies. At the height of the European sovereign debt crisis Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said that “…the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” on 26 July 2012. How much will it take? What could be the negative side effects? And in particular, what are the implications for financial stability? These questions become increasingly important, as the balance between benefits and costs of such tools tends to worsen the longer QE is in place.
This paper wants to answer whether QE could have negative impacts on financial stability and if so, whether it could lead to another episode of financial instability, i.e. a financial crisis. First, it will explain what monetary policy is, which goals it has and what the conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools are, that central banks can use, e.g. QE. The next part will explain what financial stability is and which factors can lead to a financial crisis by using the most recent episode, the global recession.
This thesis will mainly focus on the negative impacts, the QE programme of the European Central Bank has on financial markets and the banking sector. Only in the analysis of the financial markets, it will make an exception and also include the programmes of the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The analysis of the financial markets will include results of other research papers, studies and journal articles as well as a self-conducted event study, by analyzing QE announcements and their impact on bond yields and stock indices. The analysis of the banking sector will focus on financial stability indicators, their response to QE announcements and their development in the time QE was implemented incorporating results found by other researchers. In the final part, all results found here will be brought together to answer whether or not QE negatively affects financial stability.
This thesis has the purpose to investigate the oil price as the global economic factor but also to examine its implications on the worldwide economy. Thereby the determinants of the oil price are investigated by tackling the oil price itself from three different perspectives – the supply and demand framework, the prevailing world oil market structure as well as from the perspective of already statistically proven oil price determinants. In addition, the arising macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations on oil-importing and oil-exporting countries are examined. The investigation based on a thought experiment demonstrates the supply and demand framework to be unable to fully explain all past price changes. The examination on the prevailing market structure identifies the world oil market to be best described as a supply, pure, closed, partial and collusive form of an oligopoly. Analyzing the competitive behavior of the world oil market on three levels identifies non-OPEC producers’ competition to behave in a Cournot manner whereas among OPEC producers Saudi Arabia is identified to be a Stackelberg-follower with certain conditions while at the same time permanently bearing the ambition to become the Stackelberg-leader. The identification on the best describing oligopoly model for the overall industry is inconclusive. Investigating OPEC’s cartel hypothesis does not fully exclude its collusive behavior but denies the OPEC to be described as a prime example of a cartel. The examination of already existing econometric analyses identified a total of 13 determinants to play a key role in the oil price definition process. Investigating the arising macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations show oil price changes to be of great importance for the overall economic performance and is best described as a form of a positive of negative vicious circle in which the interconnected second or even third round effects intensify the implications on the macroeconomic activity.
Country risk affects cross-border investments significantly. Therefore, this paper aims to understand the concept of country risk and the available country risk assessments (models), by comparing and evaluating them. Secondly, the effectiveness of these assessments in predicting an economic downturn will be analysed. Lastly, this paper investigates the determinants behind the country risk models, using country credit ratings as a proxy.
The effectiveness analysis is based on the comparison of the credit ratings with the respective real GDP growth of Malaysia, Mexico, Japan and Portugal in a case study approach. Thereafter, Spearman’s rank order correlation coefficient analysis will be performed to investigate the determinants of the country risk models.
Results from the case study approach show that country risk assessments generally could not predict an impending economic slowdown. In addition, the correlation coefficient analysis illustrates that some variables have in general weak correlations to the credit ratings. For instance, the real GDP growth has mostly weak relationships with the ratings and tends to be statistically insignificant. On the other hand, lending and deposit interest rates have relatively strong correlations to the credit ratings and are significant at 0.01 level for some of the ratings. In addition, Mexico and Japan have the tendency to produce opposite results with the same set of indicators.
Even though investors should not rely on these country risk assessments to forecast a major crisis, the models could act as the basis of risk management. This is because these assessments do provide investors with some useful information.
The Influence of Macroeconomic Indicators Towards Sovereign Credit Rating and Sovereign Bond Spread
(2017)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate and to identify the macroeconomic indicators, as the determinants that could impact the sovereign risk. The sovereign risk here is represented by sovereign credit rating and sovereign bond spread. The world economy nowadays has become more globalized. It is becoming essential for all stakeholders in the global economy to become aware of the economic and the financial situation of a country. Sovereign risk interestingly represents not only the economic and financial situation of a country, but also the ability of a country to meet its financial obligation. This indicator plays an important role in attracting capital inflow and investment in a country. By using panel-data
framework, the estimations were built and analyzed to investigate the impact and the influence of the macroeconomic indicators towards the sovereign risk. The sample data of the research consists of 9 macroeconomic indicators as the explanatory variables, each of them includes 50 countries and 10 years of time period. Two separate panel data estimations with fixed effects model were created for each of the dependent variable, sovereign credit rating and sovereign bond spread. The results indicated that central bank rate, government debt level, total government reserves and unemployment rate have significant effects on the sovereign credit rating. Moreover, the results also indicated that current account balance, GDP growth rate, government debt level and unemployment rate have significant influence on sovereign bond spread. As both estimation share 3 significant explanatory variables, this implies that they are closely related.