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Climate change is currently one of the biggest challenges both in terms of danger to natural habitats, wildlife, and humanity. To tackle climate change, we need to reduce our carbon emissions in a fast and decisive way. This thesis studies one of the potential solutions to do so: green hydrogen. More specifically, its potential development by 2030 in Spain using INKA 4.0 scenario planning software.
Green hydrogen shows to have a wide range of applications, from transport to heating and industry with great potential to decarbonize many sectors. It does come, however with a number of important hurdles mainly related to cost, scalability and technical difficulties that will need to be addressed for it to be successful. With this, 10 descriptors were created generating three scenarios to be studied. The most consistent of them, a successful development of green hydrogen in Spain by 2030 is characterized by having all of its descriptors in a favoring state while the other two have some or all in a hindering state, making its development not successful within the established timeframe. Concluding that due to the great challenge the development of green hydrogen is, its success needs to have all factors supporting it.
A response to the Global Financial Crisis was the introduction of the Basel III regulatory requirements. The newly adapted Basel accord should incorporate lessons learned such as the need for counteracting the procyclicality of the previous Basel II regulation and the missing liquidity and leverage standards. Spain, however, had already implemented a countercyclical macroprudential instrument as well as granular credit register, for monitoring unfavourable credit developments before this regulation and was still not able to mitigate the double-tip recession that started in 2008.
Therefore, this thesis discusses the financial stability protection potential of macroprudential instruments like the ones implemented with Basel III and macroprudential statistic such as the new credit register AnaCredit. Spain has been taken as an empirical example for examining the instruments’ efficiency due to the pioneering steps towards macroprudential measures.
The results show that Spain had already implemented very useful measures which definitely have the potential of contributing to financial soundness. The amendment to the efficiency of these measures is the prerequisite of continuous improvement and complementary policy actions. Otherwise excessive credit growth developments, which can initiate financial instability, cannot be detected or controlled sufficiently as it was the case in Spain.
The limitation to this analysis is the need for further observation of the developments in the Euro system. This is important especially for the Liquidity and Leverage components of Basel III, as there have not been similar measures implemented in Spain. In the future it has to be monitored if the Basel III instruments and AnaCredit actually detect the vulnerabilities before a systemic collapse or whether the financial development of the countries remains similar to the Spanish development.