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Economic Valuation of Investments in Tangible Fixed Assets of BASF Asia Pacific: Methodology Review
(2015)
The objective of this thesis is to review and evaluate the valuation methodology for investments into fixed tangible assets methodology applied at BASF East Asia Regional Headquarters for the Asia-Pacific region to develop recommendations based on current research. The net present value, adjusted net present value and economic value added approaches are analyzed as well as other key performance indicators, real option analysis and methods of integrating volatility into the valuation criteria. A shift from the currently utilized basic net present value model is suggested as the static nature of the model can oversimplify or exclude many factors relevant to accurate investment valuations. Ultimately, the net present value should be split up to highlight areas of value creation, real options should be integrated into standard methodology and project cash flow volatility should be considered in the process. The latter can be integrated by use of Monte Carlo simulations, which can be re-run at relevant decision tree nods to show volatility differences throughout the projects timeline. These values can then, either via twin-security, market correlation or internally determined scales be integrated into the discount rate, thus effectively adjusting for project specific risk.
This study is aimed at valuing two companies in the IT services industry with different valuation approaches. Therefore, the preconditions for an accurate and meaningful business value as well as the procedure, strengths and limitations of these approaches are examined. Additionally, the accuracy of the results is determined through comparison of valuation estimates with their corresponding stock prices occurring within the three months following the business valuations.
Furthermore, it is examined if one valuation approach is superior in terms of accuracy. Finally, to verify the quality and explanatory power of the valuation results, they are compared with the outcomes of the study on the information content of equity analyst reports by Paul Asquith, Michael B. Mikhail and Andrea S. Au. The results of the business valuations show that within the three-month period, no price target was exactly achieved by the corresponding stock prices.
Furthermore, no valuation approach could be determined that is significantly more accurate than the others. It can be concluded that despite some limitations in the explanatory power of the valuations, the average percentage approximations of Mastercard’s and Visa’s stock prices to target prices were only slightly below those of the comparative study. In view of the fact that the research capacities and experience behind these business valuations are significantly lower than those of the top analysts in the comparative study, the results are considered consistent with the outcomes of the study on the information content of equity analyst reports.