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Scenario Planning: How is big data going to influence the future of smart mobility in Germany?
(2016)
Smart mobility is the future of transportation services in Germany. The implementation and management of smart mobility is impossible without using big data. At the present time,the analysis of big data in Germany is not fully implemented due to existing challenges. The purpose of this research project is to forecast the impact of big data on smart mobility in Germany with the use of scenario planning. In order to receive the most actual scenarios, the input factors were designed in accordance with extensive literature research, and then ratios between all specifications of input factors were compared and evaluated. Thus four unique scenarios were selected for further detailed interpretation to suggest possible influences of big data on smart mobility in Germany
Digitalization is invading every aspect of our lives and modern technologies are at the helm of much disruptive change in all spheres of life. Hailed as the 4th industrial revolution every company has a mind to understand the implications of the Industry 4.0 suit of technologies and their multiple innovative applications for its operations. In this paper, we explore how the industry 4.0 transformation might affect Small and Medium sized
enterprises in Germany over a 15-year horizon. We focus on SMEs because they play a significant role in ensuring the prosperity of Germany as a global industrial and economic
powerhouse. We develop alternative pictures of the possible futures using the foresight technique of Scenario planning in which the factors that shape the business environment
SMEs and indeed all companies operate in are identified and used to build the most plausible alternative realities. The outcome is four distinct scenarios that reflect the possible growth trajectories regarding the impending transformation for SMEs.
Vehicles powered by electricity are the future of mobility in Germany. At the present
time, electromobility is rather hesitantly implemented in Germany, particularly due to
concerns regarding charging infrastructure and battery power/technology.
The purpose of this research project is to forecast – by using scenario planning techniques - how electromobility will influence the way we move in Germany by 2035. The outcome are three distinct scenarios that reflect the possible shift towards E-Mobility in Germany, especially taking into consideration the charging infrastructure, different battery technology and type of electric vehicle. In order to generate scientifically significant scenarios, input factors (Descriptors) were designed in accordance with the newest research findings from literature. Additionally, special ratios between all possible manifestations of input factors were defined, compared and evaluated.
How will the future of business schools in Germany look like in 2035? Scenario Planning with INKA 4
(2019)
Business schools have been largely successful in attracting students and producing publications in the last few decades. Nevertheless, this success has raised several concerns. With many variables influencing business schools, it is useful to predict how the future of business schools might look like. Hence, this paper aims to detect current trends in order to forecast and examine the future of German business schools by the year 2035. With the help of the scenario software INKA 4, future scenarios were generated. In order to develop these scenarios, various areas of influence, e.g. Environment, Supply, Demand, Pedagogy, and Technology were identified and conceptualized with regard to current research and literature. The final result consists of four distinct scenarios, which reflect the potential pathway of German business schools in the future.
Germany has a long history in the car sector. However, today’s car industry is drastically changing, triggered by the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies and changing consumer preferences. The purpose of this research project is to forecast, by using the scenario planning software INKA 4, the future of cars in Germany in 2035. The research project focused mainly on cars based on internal combustion engines (ICE), fuel cell vehicles (FCV), battery electric vehicles (BEV) and Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and their charging infrastructure in Germany. Also, the future of autonomous driving vehicles, public transportation and carsharing in Germany were taken into consideration. Considering these factors following four areas of influence were chosen: Technology, Economics, Politics and Social. Within these areas of influence thirteen input factors (descriptors) were defined by research on current literature. The results show three distinct scenarios that reflect a possible shift towards electric mobility, autonomous driving, and an increase in the use of car sharing.
Key findings
The future of cars in Germany is affected by four areas of influence: Technology, Economics, Politics and Social. Among those four areas, a total of thirteen descriptors were selected as an input for the scenario building.
With the software INKA 4 five different scenarios were generated. Three distinctive scenarios were chosen and described to outline the future of cars in Germany in 2035.
It is highly probable that the future cars will be electrified and autonomous and that shared mobility will increase. The extent of the aforementioned change until 2035 depends highly on the German government and customer preferences.