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Future of cars in Germany in 2035 : Research Project A

  • Germany has a long history in the car sector. However, today’s car industry is drastically changing, triggered by the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies and changing consumer preferences. The purpose of this research project is to forecast, by using the scenario planning software INKA 4, the future of cars in Germany in 2035. The research project focused mainly on cars based on internal combustion engines (ICE), fuel cell vehicles (FCV), battery electric vehicles (BEV) and Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and their charging infrastructure in Germany. Also, the future of autonomous driving vehicles, public transportation and carsharing in Germany were taken into consideration. Considering these factors following four areas of influence were chosen: Technology, Economics, Politics and Social. Within these areas of influence thirteen input factors (descriptors) were defined by research on current literature. The results show three distinct scenarios that reflect a possible shift towards electric mobility, autonomous driving, and an increase in the use of car sharing. Key findings  The future of cars in Germany is affected by four areas of influence: Technology, Economics, Politics and Social. Among those four areas, a total of thirteen descriptors were selected as an input for the scenario building.  With the software INKA 4 five different scenarios were generated. Three distinctive scenarios were chosen and described to outline the future of cars in Germany in 2035.  It is highly probable that the future cars will be electrified and autonomous and that shared mobility will increase. The extent of the aforementioned change until 2035 depends highly on the German government and customer preferences.

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Author:Johannes Burger, Gargi Sunil Keluskar, Thi Kim Thi Nguyen
Advisor:Eva Kirner
Document Type:Report
Year of Completion:2020
Release Date:2020/08/03
Tag:Electric cars; Future cars; Germany; Hybrid cars; Scenario planning
Page Number:69
Degree Program:IMM - International Management
Open-Access-Status: Open Access 
Licence (German):License LogoUrheberrechtlich geschützt