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Understanding Country Risk Assessments, their Effectiveness and their Determinants: Evidence from Malaysia, Mexico, Japan and Portugal

  • Country risk affects cross-border investments significantly. Therefore, this paper aims to understand the concept of country risk and the available country risk assessments (models), by comparing and evaluating them. Secondly, the effectiveness of these assessments in predicting an economic downturn will be analysed. Lastly, this paper investigates the determinants behind the country risk models, using country credit ratings as a proxy. The effectiveness analysis is based on the comparison of the credit ratings with the respective real GDP growth of Malaysia, Mexico, Japan and Portugal in a case study approach. Thereafter, Spearman’s rank order correlation coefficient analysis will be performed to investigate the determinants of the country risk models. Results from the case study approach show that country risk assessments generally could not predict an impending economic slowdown. In addition, the correlation coefficient analysis illustrates that some variables have in general weak correlations to the credit ratings. For instance, the real GDP growth has mostly weak relationships with the ratings and tends to be statistically insignificant. On the other hand, lending and deposit interest rates have relatively strong correlations to the credit ratings and are significant at 0.01 level for some of the ratings. In addition, Mexico and Japan have the tendency to produce opposite results with the same set of indicators. Even though investors should not rely on these country risk assessments to forecast a major crisis, the models could act as the basis of risk management. This is because these assessments do provide investors with some useful information.

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Author:Ching S. Cheng
Advisor:Marc Peter Radke
Document Type:Bachelor Thesis
Year of Completion:2017
Granting Institution:Hochschule Furtwangen
Date of final exam:2017/02/23
Release Date:2017/03/01
Degree Program:IBM - International Business Management
Functional area:Economics
Licence (German):License LogoUrheberrechtlich geschützt